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March Madness Trends: 3 to Trust and 3 To Avoid

Most seed-versus-seed outcomes should be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), however there's no denying the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness pattern. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to produce profits for those picking the No. 12 seed - at least versus the spread.
Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matches. Over the previous 5 Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 tournament Round of 64.
Don't just blindly bet on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's but treat this trend with regard - like dealing with a cobra.
Three trends to fade
There's a surplus of shallow March trends out there that you should never ever blindly route when putting your bets or building your bracket. Here's the pointer of the iceberg.
Conference trends
Certain conferences will have stronger historic ATS records in the NCAA Tournament, but the groups, challengers, players and spreads all vary when building out this bull crap. The total strength of conferences sways every year, so don't go chasing after the SEC groups or fading ACC schools based entirely on those conferences' counts against the spread.
Seed vs. Seed patterns
We've singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 pattern, which ruined a great deal of "savvy" brackets with all 4 No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors ought to tread gently with that info and more so with other trends around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball seems to be widening by the season, so do not base a bet entirely on the Selection Committee's seeding.
Point spread and Over/Under patterns
Brace yourself for some doozies when it comes to any historic NCAA Tournament patterns powered by spreads and overalls. You'll get tantalizing trends around the Round of 64 underdogs between a particular point range and Over/Under pointers based on past overalls from specific seeding matchups.
As discussed, some patterns can lead you down the best handicapping road however many of these take you and your bankroll to a dead end. Be hesitant of these trends and check out the previous outcomes that powered them. If you can, try to identify a story behind them that could roll over into this year's March Madness field.
How sportsbooks treat March Madness trends
Perhaps the very best way to determine how beneficial March Madness wagering patterns are is to look at the folks setting the odds for March Madness.
If you ask an oddsmaker if they're considering the past against the spread (ATS) success of No. 15 seeds into this year's No. 2-versus-No. 15 matchup odds, they'll likely laugh in your face. Bookmakers mostly overlook historical trends, specifically in college sports, as player and skill turnover differs greatly from year-to-year.
Oddsmakers base their numbers on current form and information from that season rather than historical hoo-ha pulling from random teams with random players led by random coaches from random conferences playing at random sites. You get the concept.
The verdict on March Madness trends
Basketball wagerers should be wary of numerous March Madness patterns. While wagering on them blindly is bonkers, there are lessons to be gained from assessing them and picking up on previous patterns.
Veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence has an enormous sports wagering database that pumps out multiple March Madness betting patterns every year. And while he does not get on board all those with his NCAA Tournament bets, he sees the worth in what he calls "anticipating expectancy".
"There is a factor that Winston Churchill stated, 'Those who stop working to gain from history are doomed to repeat it,'" Lawrence says. "By discovering failures and successes from the past and applying abilities from today, we become much better, well-rounded handicappers. Yes, teams alter, but techniques and patterns are highly predictive ... By relying on past patterns, we can better expect expectancy."
March Madness wagering sites
March Madness is a preferred season for sports bettors and among the busiest for online sportsbooks. With every betting site offering March Madness chances, it is very important to understand which are safe and safe and secure, offer a vast array of banking options, and give you a lots of markets for each video game. Check out the very best March Madness wagering sites in your region, reviewed by Covers' team of educated professionals.